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: : Health : :

“Statistical and Vector Transmitted Deceases Due to Climate Variability Predictability Models Validation, Dengue Fever in the Panama District

Institutions Losgos

In the last decades, the knowledge of global warming and its relationship with human activities has allowed the the design of relieve meassures and adaptation for the Climate Change. The scientific community is studying the influence of the variability and climate change on the human health. The identification and estimation of the health impact of the climate change allows the sanitary systems to design strategies and interventions to alleviate the effects of the climate variability in the population. The estimates and projections can help identifying populations at risk in the different geographical zones in the country.

For the Panamanian National Sanitary System is highly important to identify the vulnerabilities in populations health and the early response of the sanitary system for the climate variability. To estimate the changes in the climate variability and the repercussions in the deceases and in the sanitary services that the systems offers are part of the health strategies for the boarding of the health decease of the population.

The project conjugates interdisciplinary and intersectorial efforts of the Gorgas Conmemorative Institute of Health Studies, ETESA, the Health Deparment, and the National Institute of Statistics and Census and allows to develop the necesary tools for the prediction of events or vector transmitted deceases sprouts related to the country's climate variablity.

It consists in the validation and usage of mathematical-statistical predictability models and the application of geographical information technologies, that allows to forecast the occurency of the Dengue Fever decease, tranmitted by the Aedes Aegypti mosquito, in the District of Panama. The generated information will facilitate the panamanian sanitary system decision makers, the design of interventions to prevent, controll and act before and during the occurency of sprouts of this transmissible decease.

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